耶倫：美聯(lián)儲為了穩(wěn)住失業(yè)率將再次加息3到4次

來 源：金融界網(wǎng)站發(fā)表日期：2018-11-13

　　美聯(lián)儲前主席耶倫（JanetYellen）在與朱民的對話中表示，鮑威爾和美聯(lián)儲將繼續(xù)逐步取消寬松的貨幣政策，讓聯(lián)邦基金利率回歸“中立”立場，預(yù)計該舉措在明年將繼續(xù)實施，美聯(lián)儲為了穩(wěn)住失業(yè)率將再次加息3到4次，除非出現(xiàn)出乎意料的重大經(jīng)濟(jì)事件。

　　耶倫表示，盡管美國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢大好，但仍然存在下行風(fēng)險。畢竟，往往是失衡導(dǎo)致了不可持續(xù)的繁榮。最常見的一點就是，美聯(lián)儲通過收緊政策來降低通脹，從而導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

　　耶倫提醒，美聯(lián)儲如今面臨著一個十分棘手的任務(wù)：工作崗位繼續(xù)保持著約20萬個/月的增幅，大幅超過了穩(wěn)定失業(yè)率狀態(tài)下所應(yīng)具有的水平。目前GDP 3%的增長速度，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出潛在增長率。這一現(xiàn)象部分歸功于如今已實施的強(qiáng)刺激性財政政策。但是，這輪刺激所帶來的影響可能會在貨幣政策剛剛發(fā)揮作用時（2020或2021年）基本上已經(jīng)消失，屆時形勢會變得更加復(fù)雜。

　　以下為耶倫發(fā)言實錄：

　　It’s a pleasure to join you this morning for your Annual conference on forecasts and strategies.I look forward to a wide-ranging discussion of issues confronting the US， China， and the global economy.

　　很高興能夠與大家一道參加今天早上的預(yù)測與策略年會。我期待就美、中以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)問題與大家進(jìn)行廣泛的探討。

　　In terms of some key macroeconomic objectives， the United States is performing exceptionally well.At 3.7%， the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to a 50-year low， even below levels that most participants in the Fed’s Open Market Committee judge to be consistent with “full employment.”Even after nine years of expansion， job gains still average around 200,000 per month.Inflation fell short of the Fed’s 2% objective for almost six years， but it’s moved up and now looks to have settled near the Fed’s 2% target.Strong US growth is a suPPort to the global economy.

　　就一些主要的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)而言，美國表現(xiàn)得異常優(yōu)越。美國的失業(yè)率為3.7%，降至50年以來的新低，甚至要低于美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會大多數(shù)委員所認(rèn)定的“充分就業(yè)”情況下的失業(yè)率。在經(jīng)歷了9年的擴(kuò)張之后，工作崗位依然保持著平均約20萬/月的增幅。通脹率連續(xù)近6年低于美聯(lián)儲2%的目標(biāo)值，但這一數(shù)字出現(xiàn)了增長，如今似乎在接近美聯(lián)儲2%目標(biāo)值的位置徘徊。美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勢增長為全球經(jīng)濟(jì)提供了支撐。

　　Beginning in 2015, with growing strength in the U.S. economy， the Federal Reserve embarked on the process of “normalizing” monetary policy.As Chair， my most important task was to get that process going in a manner that was gradual， well-communicated and calibrated to permit continuing progress toward our macroeconomic goals.We also sought to avoid unnecessary negative spillovers to our neighbors—spillovers of the type that occurred in 2013 due to the “taper tantrum.”In December 2015, we raised our target for the federal funds rate for the first time in seven years and in October of 2017, we began the process of shrinking the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet by redeeming some of the principal repayments on the securities in the Fed’s portfolio.Normalization of both short rates and the balance sheet are proceeding smoothly and， with the economy performing so well， Chair Powell and the FOMC are continuing the process of removing monetary accommodation to return the federal funds rate to a “neutral” stance.I expect that to continue over the next year unless there are significant economic surprises.

　　從2015年開始，隨著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)實力的增長，美聯(lián)儲啟動了貨幣政策“常態(tài)化”進(jìn)程。作為美聯(lián)儲主席，我最重要的任務(wù)就是確保這一進(jìn)程能夠循序漸進(jìn)地開展，并在期間進(jìn)行廣泛的溝通、不斷地進(jìn)行校正，從而讓美國繼續(xù)朝著宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)邁進(jìn)。我們還努力避免對鄰國產(chǎn)生不必要的負(fù)面溢出效應(yīng)，也就是類似于2013年因“削減量化寬松恐慌”所引發(fā)的溢出效應(yīng)。2015年12月，我們提高了聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)值，這在過去7年中尚屬首次。2017年10月，我們通過部分贖回美聯(lián)儲所持證券的償付本金，啟動了美聯(lián)儲4.5萬億資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表縮減進(jìn)程。短期利率和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的常態(tài)化進(jìn)程進(jìn)展順利，而且有鑒于經(jīng)濟(jì)的優(yōu)異表現(xiàn)，鮑威爾主席和公開市場委員會將繼續(xù)逐步取消寬松的貨幣政策，讓聯(lián)邦基金利率回歸“中立”立場。我預(yù)計該舉措在明年將繼續(xù)實施，除非出現(xiàn)出乎意料的重大經(jīng)濟(jì)事件。

　　Although the current US macroeconomic situation is excellent， central bankers are paid to worry—to look for dark clouds when the sun is shining.So let me enumerate a few downside risks.

　　雖然美國當(dāng)前的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢一片大好，但由于職責(zé)使然，各大央行的執(zhí)掌者也都在居安思危。我想提一下幾個下行風(fēng)險：

　　One risk pertains to the chance of a recession in the next few years.Expansions don’t usually die of old age； typically， there’s a reason.Sometimes it’s due to imbalances that are driving an unsustainable boom.Most often the reason is that the Fed causes the recession by tightening policy to bring inflation down.

　　其中一個風(fēng)險涉及未來幾年可能發(fā)生的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。擴(kuò)張通常不會因時間過長而消亡，它往往有其合理性。有時正是失衡導(dǎo)致了不可持續(xù)的繁榮。大多數(shù)情況下，它源于美聯(lián)儲為降低通脹而采取的緊縮政策所導(dǎo)致的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

　　I don’t see the US economy at this point as suffering from serious imbalances.Household debt has declined considerably and credit growth has been moderate.The banking system is far better capitalized and more liquid than before the crisis； leverage in the financial sector is well below precrisis levels.I am concerned by the high level of nonfinancial corporate debt， which could be vulnerable in a slowing economy with rising interest rates； but the debt looks largely to be held by unlevered investors.Asset prices are elevated relative to historic valuation norms but reasonably normal relative to the low levels of long-term yields.There are of course risks that those rates could rise but many economists believe that slow productivity growth， aging populations and a strong demand for safe assets will depress real interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies for a long time to come.

　　在我看來，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)在目前并沒有出現(xiàn)嚴(yán)重的失衡。家庭負(fù)債出現(xiàn)了大幅下滑，信貸增長一直維持在較為溫和的水平。銀行系統(tǒng)的資本充足率和流動性遠(yuǎn)好于危機(jī)前。金融行業(yè)的杠桿也大幅低于危機(jī)前水平。但我擔(dān)心的是非金融企業(yè)債務(wù)，這部分債務(wù)在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長緩慢、利率高企的時期可能會出現(xiàn)問題。然而，這部分債務(wù)似乎基本都由未加杠桿的投資者持有。資產(chǎn)價格相較于歷史計價規(guī)范有所上升，但考慮到長期收益的走低，這一價格仍在正常的合理范圍之內(nèi)。當(dāng)然，上述價格上升的風(fēng)險依然存在，但很多經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為生產(chǎn)力的低速增長、人口的老齡化以及對避險資產(chǎn)的強(qiáng)勁需求在今后很長一段時間內(nèi)將壓低美國和其他發(fā)達(dá)國家的實際利率。

　　There is a risk that the Fed will cause the next recession， but with skill and luck I believe it’s something the Fed has a good chance to avoid.That said， the Fed faces a very tricky task.As I mentioned， job gains are continuing at around 200,000 a month， a pace well above the level consistent with a stable unemployment rate.Moreover， unemployment has already declined below levels judged to be sustainable over the longer run and the current pace of growth of around 3% far exceeds the growth rate of potential output.This partly reflects the highly stimulatory fiscal policy that is now in place.To complicate matters， that stimulus may well phase out at exactly the time that monetary policy begins to bite—in 2020 or 2021.Over the next year， I anticipate that the Fed will boost rates 3 or 4 additional times to stabilize the unemployment rate.Policy is not on a preset course though and the actual pace of Fed tightening will depend on how inflation and the labor market evolve relative to current expectations.Accomplishing such a “soft landing” is an exceptionally difficult task made more difficult by the current fiscal policy trajectory.But the odds of success are boosted by fact that inflation remains low； there are few if any signs of building inflation pressures； inflation expectations are well anchored； and the linkages between labor market slack and inflation look to be weak.

　　還有一個風(fēng)險在于，美聯(lián)儲將引發(fā)新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，但是通過良好的運(yùn)作，再加上一點運(yùn)氣，我認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲很有可能能夠避免此類事情的發(fā)生。盡管如此，美聯(lián)儲面臨著一個十分棘手的任務(wù)。正如我剛才所提到的，工作崗位繼續(xù)保持著約20萬個/月的增幅，大幅超過了穩(wěn)定失業(yè)率狀態(tài)下所應(yīng)具有的水平。此外，失業(yè)率已低于外界所認(rèn)定的長期可持續(xù)水平，而且當(dāng)前約3%的增幅大大超過了潛在產(chǎn)出的增速。這一現(xiàn)象部分歸功于如今已實施的強(qiáng)刺激性財政政策。同時，這輪刺激所帶來的影響可能會在貨幣政策剛剛發(fā)揮作用時（2020或2021年）基本上已經(jīng)消失，因此屆時形勢會變得更加復(fù)雜。明年，我預(yù)計美聯(lián)儲為了穩(wěn)住失業(yè)率將再次加息3到4次。不過，政策并不是預(yù)先設(shè)定好的，美聯(lián)儲緊縮政策的實際步伐取決于通脹和勞動力市場是否會按照當(dāng)前預(yù)期的發(fā)展。完成這類軟著陸是一件異常困難的任務(wù)，而當(dāng)前財政政策軌跡則增加了這一任務(wù)的難度。下列因素有助于這一舉措獲得成功：通脹依然維持在較低水平；通脹壓力上升的跡象不明顯或不存在；通脹預(yù)期得到有效調(diào)控；而且勞動力市場疲軟和通脹之間的關(guān)聯(lián)并不是很強(qiáng)。

　　Some further risks pertain to the possible global spillovers and spillbacks from the Fed’s monetary policy and also from U.S. trade policy.I look forward to discussing these global linkages and risks in our conversation this morning.

　　還有一些風(fēng)險關(guān)乎美聯(lián)儲貨幣政策和美國貿(mào)易政策所導(dǎo)致的可能的全球溢出和回溢。我期待在今天早上的對話中討論這些全球性關(guān)聯(lián)和風(fēng)險。